It's the post-PC era

[dsrtao]

Personal computers, as you have no doubt heard, are obsolete. The future is in tablets and smartphones.

Oh yeah?

Then why are bigger and bigger monitors so popular? How are you going to carry that in your pocket*?

When you want to work on a document, plus pull things from this spreadsheet, plus keep your outline and your notes in front of you, all at the same time -- no tablet you're willing to walk around with will work for you. It won't be too long before there are reasonably priced desktop displays -- by which I mean your entire desk's surface will be a nice tough sheet of superglass backed by a 300 dpi color sunlight-readable display. It probably will have multitouch sensitivity, too. And about 80 million pixels.

That's going to be a PC, though. Network connection, local storage, a bunch of ports to connect other devices, standardized expansion ports so you can upgrade hardware a few times before you decide that this year's model is just so much better. I wouldn't be surprised to see most of it in a beige, white or black box sitting under your desk, either.

But the post-PC era is all about app stores, you protest? Oh, please. We've had that in UNIX land for decades: the ports system, then the various packaging systems, and then the app repositories, now with friendly searchable interfaces and recommendations and all sorts of fun things like that. App stores are kind of limited compared to that, really.

Storing data in the cloud? There's NFS and Samba and DRBD, cluster filesystems and Amazon S3 storage and Google filesystems of doom and a thousand others to suit the exact need.

There are an infinite number of possible ecological niches for computing devices, and one of them continues to be the PC. The essence of the PC is general-purpose computing. Adaptability, flexibility, customizability. The ability to run the software you want and hook up the hardware you buy or make. It's never going to be the post-PC era until we have neural interfaces and AI assistants.




*Even given really good microdisplays in your glasses or contact lenses, plus really good microprojectors, there will still be a place for monitors.

Comments

[shayde.livejournal.com]

I think i disagree with absolutely every one of your items :)

But well said!

(I'm typing on my macbook 13". i have no desktop monitor for it. i do -everything- on it. d evelopment, graphic work, document editing, email, chatting, gaming. and it's awesome)

[dsrtao]

I'm glad the PC model is working out for you, then!

Laptops are personal computers, not tablets/smartphones. You've got the same OS you'd run on a desktop, the same lack-of-an-app-store (and lack of stevejobsian censorship). You've got real local storage, an optical drive, and ports to plug in what you might need. The fact that you don't regularly connect to any particular peripheral does not invalidate my thesis.

Now think about doing all your development, graphic work, document editing, email, chatting and gaming on a second-generation iPad. The screen is probably higher resolution, but it's still 10 - 11" across. If you want a keyboard, you'll have to dock it. According to Apple's current rules, you can't run a compiler. If your editor is overly programmable, that won't be allowed either. Some graphic work will be OK, but you won't be editing much HD video without more local storage and a faster way of shipping it around. Anything larger than screen size will be a pain, too. Some games will be fine, but there are quite a few which really want a keyboard, or a keyboard and a mouse.

[seawasp]

I still foresee rollable displays -- like the windowshades you might have in your window, pull it out to whatever size you want, roll it back up when you're done.

Or VRD approaches, like A.J. Baker's in Boundary, but someone needs to solve the alignment issue.

[ladymacgregor.livejournal.com]

TIME magazine, in a review for the iPad, said that it is FABULOUS for the *display* of content, but not so much for the *creation* of content. For that, they implied, you still need a PC.

I agree with them. I invested in an iPod Touch, and it's great for showing my calendar or taking SHORT notes, but if I have to actually type anything, give me a keyboard and my big monitor.

[jducoeur]

I confess, I find the dichotomy just plain wrong. I think the conventional wisdom about the "post-PC era" is wrong, but I think you've kind of bought into the same false dichotomy.

I mean, I've started to think of my phone as my principal laptop, with nary a hint of irony. I can't actually *use* it the same way I do a laptop, but that's largely about peripherals, rather than anything intrinsically different about the devices.

So yes, I agree that the post-PC era is nonsense -- but only because I expect the new devices to grow into good replacements for most PC activities. What I find myself wanting, more than a traditional PC, is a *serious* docking station for my phone, with a big screen and a good keyboard. (And of course, a phone powerful enough to use it -- but it feels to me like we're only a couple of generations away from that.)